Chuantou Energy (600674) 2019 Interim Report Review: Electricity Price Shock Announces Phase One, Company Summary Prospects Expect Prospects
Core point of view The company’s H1 performance fell slightly, in line with expectations, and the Yalongjiang company’s Q1 electricity price allowance accrual was the main cause of the drag, but its impact has already come to an end.
Taking into account the good water supply from the Yalong River during the flood season and the current interest rate reduction environment is good for large debt-like hydropower, the company is expected to share performance and improve in the future.
Maintain “Buy” rating and target price of 12.
In the first half of the year, EPS was 0.
26 yuan, in line with expectations.
2019H1 company achieved revenue 3.
200 million, downgraded five years ago.
7%; net profit attributable to mother 11.
500 million, down slightly from 0 previously.
26 yuan, in line with expectations.
In a single quarter, Q2 achieved net profit attributable to its mother4.
1 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.
4%, converted to basic earnings per share of 0.
Yalongjiang’s Q1 electricity price accrual impacted performance, but its impact on performance has been temporarily resolved.
Public core assets Yalongjiang Company H1 contributed investment income11.
10,000 yuan (down 8.
6%), affecting company performance.
Yalong River’s power generation value added twice in the first half of the year.
9% (where Q1 / Q2 increase by +7 respectively.
2%), but the Yalong River company made a concession to the on-grid electricity price and caused the average electricity price in Q1 to fall and downgrade by 14.
1%, resulting in a decrease in average H1 on-grid electricity prices by 7.
4%, its impact is difficult to be completely hedged by the charge pick-up, resulting in Yalong River profit and the corresponding investment income improvement.
But viewed quarterly, the average electricity price of Q2 started to pick up (+1.
5%), the expected price reduction shock has been temporarily notified to the first level.
In addition, Daduhe changed to equity method to measure H1 and increase investment income by 0.
The incoming water from the Yalong River has a good environment for reducing interest rates, and the company’s follow-up is worth looking forward to.
In July, the value of hydropower utilization in Sichuan Province increased by 8 every hour.
1%, the probability of cash flow in the flood season is high; the water level of Jinping First and Second Beaches of Yalong River Company 杭州桑拿网 ‘s main reservoir reached 1,871 / 1,198m on August 18, which are close to the normal water storage level (1,880 / 1,200m), overall, the turbine is expected to achieve high-head continuous power generation, and has higher expectations for electricity during the flood season.
At present, the company is expected to have a historical height, with a high degree of security margin, and the debt assets of the company’s core asset classes are prominent. Under the current risk-free interest rate downward environment, the company is expected to promote future improvement.
The risks of midstream power station development have been digested, and the potential for improvement in return prospects is great.
Liangfangkou under construction, the installed capacity of Yangfanggou Power Station is expected to be 2021?Production will start one after another in 2023. At present, the low-risk return of the midstream has been fully released. After the Lianghekou power station was put into operation, the most conservative ROE is about 5?
7% (low electricity price & no investment savings), the level of return is expected and is expected to increase rapidly through repayment of financial costs.
In addition, the brightening prospects of the midstream will help lift estimates.
Risk factors: Turning of incoming water to dryness; lowering of benchmark electricity prices; increased marketization of profits.
Investment suggestion: Considering that the first half performance is in line with expectations, we maintain 2019?
EPS forecast for 2021 is zero.
79 yuan, the current expected corresponding P / E is 13/13/12 times, the total valuation of the company’s segments, giving the company a target price for 2019 of 12.
40 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.